- Election-Denying Republican Candidates Underperformed in the 2022 Midterms (Joint with Andrew B. Hall). R&R @ APSR
We combine newly collected election data with records of public denials of the results of the 2020 election to estimate the degree to which election-denying Republican candidates for senator, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general over- or under-performed other Republicans in 2022. We find that the average vote share of election-denying Republicans in statewide races was approximately 2.3 percentage points lower than their co-partisans after accounting for state-level partisanship. Election-denying candidates received roughly 2 percentage-points more vote share than other Republican candidates in primaries, on average, although this estimate is quite uncertain. The general-election penalty is larger than the margin of victory in battleground states in recent close presidential elections, suggesting that nominating election-denying candidates in 2024 could be a damaging electoral strategy for Republicans. At the same time, it is small enough to suggest that only a relatively small group of voters changed their vote in response to having an election-denying candidate on the ballot.
Works in Progress
- Seeking Higher Ground: Partisan Sorting Along Future Inundation Risk from Sea Level Rise.
- Have Changes to Media and Technology Helped to Nationalize American Elections? (Joint with Daniel M. Thompson, Fang Guo, Alexander Fouirnaies, and Andrew B. Hall
- Cable News and Polarization. (Joint wiht Daniel M. Thompson and Andrew B. Hall)